For the first time, President Joe Biden has a numerical advantage over former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday.
Biden received 49 percent support of the 1,680 registered voters in the Keystone State, while Trump pulled in 46 percent with a margin of error at +/- 2.4 percent. Trump led Biden, 47-45, in October and 47-46 in June.
“A good bump for Biden at a time when there is not a lot of good things happening,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
While party support was expected with 96 percent of Democrats backing Biden and 89 percent of Republicans supporting Trump, independents were divided 45-44 in favor of the 45th president.
Quinnipiac also posed a five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup that includes independent and Green Party candidates, Biden receives 41 percent support, Trump receives 39 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 11 percent support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 4 percent support, and independent candidate Cornel West receives 2 percent support.
Pennsylvania Senate
In the closely-watched U.S. Senate race, Democrat Bob Casey holds a healthy 10-point lead over Republican Dave McCormick, 53-43, increasing what was a six-point advantage (50-44) in October. Independents broke for Casey, giving the three-term incumbent 55 percent support compared to 39 percent for the former Bridgewater Associates CEO.
“A big infusion of Indie support makes one of the most closely watched Senate races in 2024 a not-so-tight race,” said Malloy.
Job Approvals
Malloy put it best. “Governor Shapiro gets all the love with approval numbers other politicians would take in a Pennsylvania minute.”
Shapiro had a 59 percent job approval rating with just 23 percent disapproving. Casey also was above 50 percent, garnering 51 percent that approved of his performance, while 31 percent disapproved.
Sen. John Fetterman was 45-42, while Biden came in underwater with 58 percent disapproving and just 40 percent giving their approval. Nearly 1 in 4 respondents said they think more favorably of Fetterman for expressing strong support of Israel with 1 in 7 looking down on his statements. Nearly 40 percent of those surveyed stated they understand more about mental health struggles now because he is sharing his experiences and 86 percent think stigmas about mental health still exist.
GOP Primary
Now that the Pennsylvania primary date will stay on April 23, the next question becomes who will Keystone State GOP voters nominate. Trump pulled in 61 percent support from registered Republicans, well ahead of former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. Florida governor Ron DeSantis polled at 10 percent, while former New Jersey governor Chris Christie received six percent support.
Among registered Republican voters who support a candidate in the 2024 Republican presidential primary, 13 percent say it is very likely that they will change their candidate choice if the candidate they are currently supporting is not a winner in one of the early primary states, 21 percent say it is somewhat likely, 16 percent say it is not so likely, and 45 percent say it is not likely at all.
The Most Urgent Issue
As Biden stumps in the Keystone State about the battle for “The Soul of America,” less than 1 in 4 respondents (24%) say preserving democracy in the United States in the most urgent issue out of 11 on a list. Twenty-three percent said border security, while 15 percent indicated the economy.
Not surprisingly, border security tops the concerns of Republicans (46%), while Democrats’ top choice was preserving democracy (44%). And independents split the difference, with 22 percent opting for border security and 22 percent preserving democracy.
Economy
One-third of voters (33%) describe the state of the nation’s economy as either excellent (3%) or good (30%), while two-thirds feel differently, saying it is not so good (30%) or poor (36%). Ironically, 64 percent of respondents describe their financial situation as excellent or good, while a little more than 1 in 3 disagree.
Methodology
1,680 Pennsylvania self-identified registered voters were surveyed from January 4th – January 8th with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.
The survey included 651 self-identified registered Republican voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 746 self-identified registered Democratic voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
